President Rodrigo Duterte made the right call to skip the ongoing US-ASEAN Special Summit in Washington D.C. from 12-May 2022.

According to the Mr. Duterte, he ‘might take a stand that will not be acceptable to the next administration.’

He said further, “Sabi ko sa kanila na pangit na tingnan kung magpunta ako doon, alam kong may bago nang president (I told them it doesn’t look good that I’ll be there as I know there’s also a new president) and besides, if it’s a working conference, there might be agreements and commitments that will be made there.”

This is a correct diplomatic posture by the outgoing President, particularly because the summit takes place only a few days after the conduct of the 2022 presidential elections, and presumptive President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has not yet conveyed a particular position on the future of PH-US cooperation in the past.

Furthermore, there are concerns that Washington, through this summit, will try to strengthen its interference in regional disputes in the South China Sea, particularly with the recent release of its Indo-Pacific Strategy calling for an ‘empowered ASEAN’ working alongside other regional alliances such as the Quad.

It remains our position that disputes in the South China Sea should be resolved only by its affected regional actors, without the interference of other parties. In other words, ASEAN as a bloc should work together to stand up to Beijing in resolving specific disputes within contested waters and formations.

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In fact, the territorial disputes should not be a pretext by Washington to increase its presence in the region, as this would only play into its own agenda and strategy over this part of the world.

In no uncertain terms, Manila and ASEAN should play no role in elevating the level of interference of other nations in ASEAN’s regional disputes.

Correspondingly, Washington should not drag the ASEAN towards supporting its intervention in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Except Singapore, no other ASEAN state has joined Western-led sanctions on Moscow. This should be a clear notice to Washington and US President Joe Biden that the ongoing conflict has no place in high-level discussions during the special summit.

Furthermore, ASEAN should be wary of the new but limited financial commitments being conveyed by Washington to its members, as the amounts being discussed are insignificant at best. Divided equally between ASEAN members, it represents funding that can be internally generated by the Philippines or secured through other partners, but without preconditions related to South China Sea disputes or the conflict in Ukraine.

As we find more clarity in the coming days with the foreign policy direction of the new Marcos government, it bears repeating that an independent foreign policy should be pursued by the Philippine government, which should not pivot to any superpower.

Inasmuch as the current regime has abandoned the pivot to Washington, we are expecting nonetheless that the new government will make a rebalancing in its relations with Beijing, as we had not seen real diplomatic and economic dividends in the last six years.