After the Brexit referendum in 2016, the UK adopted the ‘Global Britain’ strategy to continue its global influence. This approach focuses on Southeast Asia, in particular the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). There is, however, a risk that the UK’s assertive actions in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR), particularly in the Philippines, may inadvertently exacerbate regional tensions.

Historically, the British have played a key role in upholding a unipolar world order, with the kingdom at the head. This strategy aims to maintain its dominance in global finance, a position it solidified after the Cold War. The UK’s interest in the burgeoning Asian markets stems from concerns over China’s growing influence, seen as a threat to Western financial systems. China’s development of alternatives to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, along with initiatives by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), are seen as encroachment on Western spheres of influence.

With the United States, Russia, and China dominating global affairs, only keen observers will notice the UK’s intensified political, economic, and defense cooperation within ASEAN. Through mechanisms like the ADMM-Plus, which includes ASEAN and eight Dialogue Partners (Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Russia, and the United States), the UK intends to enhance security and defense collaboration to supposedly promote peace, stability, and development. These actions, however, carry substantial risks.

The UK’s action plan is revealed in government reports. A report released by the UK House of Commons Defence Committee in January revealed that one of its primary strategies for exerting more influence in APR is to ride the US Indo-Pacific pivot.

“We have an ambitious exercise programme with the US throughout the Indo-Pacific; this ranges from Exercise PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP alongside the US Navy and Coastguard in the Philippines to participation in the multilateral exercise RIMPAC in the Pacific. We further demonstrated our ability to deploy at scale to the Indo-Pacific with the US alongside other allies during the Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 2021,” the report said.

As a potential entry point for a heightened military presence in Asia, the UK has even highlighted significant threats such as the India-China border disputes, South China Sea territorial conflicts, and the Korean Peninsula nuclear crisis in several official defense documents.

Through its involvement in the AUKUS alliance with the USA and Australia, the UK intends to counterbalance China’s military expansion. AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership in the Indo-Pacific region, was announced in September 2021. The partnership involves the US and the UK aiding Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines and includes cooperation on advanced cyber mechanisms, artificial intelligence and autonomy, quantum technologies, underwater capabilities, hypersonic and counterhypersonic technologies, electronic warfare, innovation, and information sharing.

According to the International Center for Defence and Security, AUKUS emphasizes the importance of a common purpose and swift action in the current strategic and technological environment. However, China has condemned the partnership, warning it could severely damage regional peace and perpetuate a “cold-war mentality,” viewing it as a response to its assertive emergence as a superpower.

Glaring red flagA recent example of the UK’s increasing military engagement in the region is the visit of HMS Spey to Manila in March 2024. Commander Paul Caddy, HMS Spey’s Commanding Officer, highlighted the strengthening ties between the UK and the Philippines during this visit. Its stop in Manila coincided with an exhibition of leading UK defense firms, including BAE Systems, Thales, and Leonardo, during the patrol ship’s Indo-Asia-Pacific mission. 

This visit is indicative of a broader pattern of UK military engagement in the Philippines. UK Army personnel also mentor and conduct cyber training exercises. A deepening involvement of the UK in ASEAN, particularly in defense cooperation, is perceived as anti-Chinese and anti-Russian, with more political observers expressing concern that the UK’s plans could disrupt ASEAN unity. Coordinated with the US, the UK’s actions are likely seen as moves against China and Russia, escalating regional tensions.

Manila could be struck by disaster as the UK interferes more and more in an already volatile APR. The British occupation of Manila from October 1762 to April 1764 is a poignant historical reminder. The British occupied Manila and Cavite during the Seven Years’ War with the aim of using the city as a trade hub in the region, especially with China. In spite of an agreement with the Spanish governor to spare the city in exchange for ransom, British expansion beyond Manila and Cavite was hampered by resistance from the provisional Spanish colonial government. With the UK becoming more aggressive in its posturing, history may repeat itself.

This historical episode illustrates the potential risks of foreign interference and regional instability. The UK’s current military ambitions in the Philippines and the broader APR could lead to similar disastrous outcomes. In the absence of heeding the lessons of history, the Philippines may once again find itself caught in the crossfire of great power competition, with disastrous consequences for its sovereignty and stability.

The UK’s strategy in the Asia-Pacific, driven by a desire to maintain global influence and counter China’s rise, is a glaring red flag and poses a significant risk to regional stability. This dynamic must be navigated carefully by the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations, prioritizing regional cooperation and stability over aligning with external powers’ strategic interests. Manila and the broader region are at risk of conflict, and the stakes are high.