Commentary – Infrawatch PH

Pivoting to Shanghai

Oct 5, 2021

With the success of the recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, Manila has every incentive to actively participate in the regional bloc and raise its level of relations with its member states.

Multilateralism in Afghanistan

Serving as a strong counterweight to Washington’s vision of a world led with its allies, SCO’s Dushanbe declaration puts great emphasis on the need for real multilateralism in resolving regional and international disputes.

One of the summit’s most significant gains is the SCO’s consensus that Islamabad coordinate with the Taliban on the formation of an inclusive government involving Tajiks, Uzbeks and Harazas.

This is an important development because it shows a consensual mechanism by a regional bloc seeking to influence the high-level policy of one of the SCO’s partners in order to ensure regional stability and inclusivity in governance.

The SCO’s multilateral action on Afghanistan is relevant to the Philippines as Manila continues to consider Islamist extremism as a serious national security threat despite the signing of a peace agreement between the national government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

The country continues to reel from the effects of the Marawi Siege in 2017, in which a ragtag band of Islamic extremists laid to waste the Islamic City of Marawi in the southern island of Mindanao due to five months of intense fighting with government forces.

The regional bloc’s experience in with dealing security issues in Afghanistan will be very relevant for Manila’s strategic planning on containing extremism and terrorism in the country and the region, as it can provide valuable access to intelligence information, and prospective military contracts for equipment and weapons.

This is important in order to allow Manila to lead ASEAN in forming its own regional anti-terror structure and network based on real experience by various states in fighting extremism and terrorism.

Tehran rises

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Another significant development in Dushanbe is the ascension of Iran as full member of the SCO. This comes after fifteen years of being an observer member and despite an unjust US sanctions regime crippling Tehran’s trade relations with the world.

Its status as an SCO full member implies that all member states make a commitment to stand in defense of Tehran against US sanctions even if doing so may expand the risk of sanctions to their own economies for dealing with Iran.

This neck-on-the-line diplomacy is in sharp contrast to Washington’s brand of supporting its allies, which in the case of the Philippines has been mostly empty diplomatese on defending the country in the event of an armed escalation in the South China Sea.

Moreover, its new SCO status allows greater economic integration and cooperation with regional bloc’s member states, especially major global economies such as Russia, China and China.

In fact, Tehran inked new deals with Tajikistan at $500 Million of annual bilateral trade, which is almost ten times higher than current levels.

Manila’s independent foreign policy

All of these fits squarely into the government’s commitment to pursuing an independent foreign policy, which had unfortunately been blunted by Malacanang’s decision to restore the PH-US Visiting Forces Agreement.

Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization balances this, because it allows Manila to relate with different international actors on which mutually beneficial relations may be built, particularly on the areas of security and trade.

Initially, Manila can participate as a dialogue partner, which now includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt, joining Turkey, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, but as soon as more confidence and trust is built, it can proceed to become an observer member as well.

With the twin goals of further developing security and trade, there should be no doubt that pivoting towards Shanghai should figure into the country’s plans in international relations.

Duterte urged: Cancel biolabs funded by US Department of Defense

Jun 19, 2021

Last September 2020, a $643,000 US-funded animal disease diagnostic laboratory has been constructed in Tarlac City and turned over to the Department of Agriculture (DA), with the aim of supposedly boosting the country’s biosecurity efforts against transboundary animal diseases.

According to the DA, the new Regional Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory (RADDL) in Paraiso, Tarlac City would provide “advanced service through modern technologies to ensure a healthy and resilient animal sector” in Central Luzon.

This project would certainly be a welcome development to reverse the dampening bilateral relations between Washington and Manila, had it not been for the fact that it was funded by the United States Defense Threat Reduction Agency (US DTRA), which is an agency within the United States Department of Defense (DoD) and is the official Combat Support Agency for countering weapons of mass destruction (WMD; chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high explosives).

In other words, a civilian laboratory was constructed on the dime of a foreign military agency, which has the responsibility of managing and integrating the US DoD chemical and biological defense science and technology programs.

This is concerning, because the task of civilian cooperation on bilateral agricultural concerns lies with the US Department of Agriculture, not with agencies within the US DoD, and allowing US DoD agencies to influence civilian agricultural initiatives gives rise to reasonable suspicions on the true objectives of these projects in the Philippines.

While it is true that the DTRA contributed in the international effort to confront Ebola by spending approximately $300 million on scientific R&D efforts since 2003 developing vaccines and therapeutic treatments, it should be noted that it has also participated in Syrian civil war, by developing the Field Deployable Hydrolysis System, which was used to destroy alleged Syrian chemical weapons.

Further, the DTRA has been involved in the Iraqi occupation, identifying, collecting and securing radiological material, including almost two tons of low enriched uranium (LEU), several hundred tons of yellowcake (a type of uranium powder), and other radioactive sources.

In other words, the funding agency for the PH DA agricultural labs have clear overt and covert military objectives in the Philippines which may not necessarily align with the civilian, even military objectives of Manila.

In fact, the funding of these laboratories is in line with DTRA strategic goals and objectives.

In its strategic plan for 2018-2022, the DTRA intends to strengthen alliances and attract new international partners, including nontraditional partners, within industry, universities, thinktanks, among others.

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Certainly, the partnership with the PH DA fits within DTRA’s strategic objectives.

The DA said the RADDL will provide services and tests for trade, disease surveillance, and animal health, regulatory and research, including functioning as a training facility for veterinary clinicians, students and professionals in the region.

With the involvement of DTRA in these laboratories, the US military agency should disclose whether there are unspecified military objectives in funding the laboratory, and other labs in the future, particularly relating to the development of bioweapons.

It should also disclose the extent of its continuing involvement in these labs, on whether they are able to mutually determine policies, objectives, programs and activities with its PH counterparts, or whether its work terminates after turnover to PH authorities.

These questions are critical to determine whether the US have covert objectives in undertaking these projects in the Philippines, especially since the Tarlac biolab is just the first in a series of integrated laboratories planned by the DTRA.

In behalf of DTRA, Major Brian Smith said the Tarlac-based RADDL is part of an integrated network of laboratories that aim to identify diseases, or pathogens, prior to them spreading throughout the region, identify them early, and help mitigate the risk before it spreads.

In fact, since 2016, DTRA’s Biological Threat Reduction Program (BTRP) has spent approximately $25,000,000 in the Philippines, to fund the construction of new laboratories across the nation, support trainings, and provide biorisk management subject matter expertise.

Certainly, PH authorities, no less than the President, should look at these foreign activities with greater scrutiny than before, as there exist international partners in the civilian sector which can competently provide the same services to our agricultural sector but without the accompanying military risks.

It should be noted that the USDA, through its Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, undertakes similar international cooperation by collaborating with foreign partners to control pests and diseases before they can harm the US, ensuring the effective and efficient management of internationally-based programs, and investing in international capacity-building with foreign counterparts to build technical and regulatory skills that prevent the spread of damaging pests and diseases.

With the President still in the process of determining the future of its military alliance with Washington, these activities should serve as warning signs that despite the President’s fiery rhetoric against the US, Washington continues with its objectives in the Philippines and the Pacific.

Time to diversify COVID-19 vaccines

Jun 17, 2021

According to the most recent data on vaccinations in the Philippines, the country has administered at least 8.41 Million vaccine doses, with 5.7% of the population already receiving at least one vaccine dose, or around 6.25 Million people.

Among all the available vaccines, Chinese drugmaker Sinovac Biotech has been providing the bulk of shots with government procuring at least 6.5 million jabs from China.

On the other hand, government has achieved a new milestone in its vaccine procurement plan with the signing of a supply agreement for 40 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, its biggest coronavirus vaccine deal to date.

With the new deal, the Philippines is on its way towards achieving herd immunity for seventy percent of its population, with at least 41-percent of vaccines already under contract.

For context, government ordered 113 million doses from five vaccine manufacturers, including 26 million from China’s Sinovac, 10 million of Russia’s Sputnik V, 20 million doses from Moderna and 17 million doses from AstraZeneca.

As can be seen from the list, there appears to be a misbalance in the distribution of vaccine providers, with more than fifty percent of vaccines being procured from the United States, more than twenty percent from China and the rest dividing out the rest of the vaccine supply allocations.

In order to achieve herd immunity, government needs to procure at least 20 million vaccine jabs more to achieve its stated goal of seventy-percent of the entire population. Further, with the advent of the Delta variant, some medical experts are stated that vaccination goals should be increased further to eighty-percent.

With greater diversity in vaccine supply, the country should be able to fend off the different variants that may come to our shores, especially since not all vaccines are as effective as others in confronting newer strains of the coronavirus.

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This is concerning given a Lancet study that shows that people fully vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine are likely to have more than five times lower levels of neutralizing antibodies against the Delta variant first identified in India compared to the original strain.

As such, there is great imperative that the remaining vaccine supply procurement focus on other vaccine suppliers, in order to level the ratio among vaccine sources. With the high ratio afforded Pfizer and Sinovac, it is not unreasonable to predict that the Delta variant poses a new risk to those already vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine.

On the other hand, questions remain on the efficacy of Chinese vaccines in eradicating the coronavirus, as countries such as Chile and the Seychelles also seeing rising cases alongside high vaccination rates.

The Chilean capital Santiago went back into lockdown, even though more than half the population have been fully vaccinated. Cases have surged by 17 per cent nationwide in the last two weeks and by 25 per cent in the Santiago area.

Bahrain also announced that it would be offering a booster shot of the Pfizer vaccine to high risk people who had already received two shots of the Chinese Sinopharm jabs. Cases spiked in the Middle East country in May, despite the fact that nearly 50 per cent of the population had had at least one dose of vaccine.

Certainly, the country’s vaccine procurement planners should be mindful of all these developments in order to effectively plan the next steps towards herd immunity.

With at least 20 million more jabs to be procured by government, vaccine suppliers with already high supply ratios should already be disqualified in the next round of procurement, as vaccine supply diversity is also a critical component in any country’s coronavirus response strategy.

US Big brother: Silent but enduring

Sep 10, 2019

With the presently warming ties between Manila and Beijing, there is a tendency to look at Washington as distant, weakening strategic ally of the Philippines. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Port visits, exercises, choppers

As recent as last month, the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its accompanying ships arrived in Manila for a routine port call after patrolling the South China Sea. While the US declares that port calls are a ‘direct reflection of the longstanding relationship between the US and the Philippines,’ it is also a direct projection of US military hegemony over the Philippines and the entire Indo-Pacific.

The treaty partners have also undertaken Balikatan military exercises with an expanded number of personnel since 2018. Joint military exercises are useful not only to actually train US and Filipino military personnel, but more importantly, it is used a showcase to the world by both treaty partners that despite overtures from Beijing and Moscow, the strategic alliance remains well and strong.

Most dramatic is Mr. Duterte’s decision to allow the purchase of US Blackhawk helicopters despite months of speeches assailing US interventionism in the Philippines and outrightly rejecting US military equipment purchases as a matter of policy.

All of these expanded activities are surprising given the very strong rhetoric of Mr. Duterte on US-PH relations. It can only be surmised that pro-Washington defense officials have convinced the President to finally relent and reconsider.

Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)

Under the administration of US President Donald Trump, the Indo-Pacific is the US military’s priority theater, in which its seeks to employ effective deterrence against regional threats, engage partners and allies as force multipliers, and lead the implementation of a rules-based order in region.

As such, the Philippines finds itself in a tug-of-war between two geopolitical giants: China and the United States, in which both powers seek to employ different methods to place the Philippines in its metaphorical safe harbors.

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With the very equivocal foreign policy pronouncements of Mr. Duterte, both powers cannot be assured that the Philippines will ultimately pick a side in the geopolitical fray. And this is very evident in the Philippine government’s cherry-picking relations with both regional powers: development cooperation with Beijing and military cooperation with Washington.

Forward operating bases raises regional tensions

However, Washington has a first-mover advantage as it military influence stretches as far north as Korea down to Singapore, in what is called the first island chain. The Philippines is included in this chain, after Manila signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) which allowed the US to establish forward operating bases (FOB) in the country despite the Philippine constitution prohibiting the establishment of foreign military bases.

And here lies the precarious situation of the Philippines. With increasing trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, it is within the realm of possibility that their dispute escalates to the level of military provocation, such that the FOBs in the Philippines may be equipped with military equipment and materiel within the missile defense framework of the US Department of Defense.

This does not only render the Philippines vulnerable to acts of aggression from US adversaries, but also makes Manila responsible for the expected presence of non-nuclear conventional weapons which may have the same lethality as nuclear weapons.

Way forward

Nonetheless, the way forward is not to choose between two competing regional powers determined to dominate the Indo-Pacific.

Regional groupings and individual states have been undertaking their own independent assessments for the future of the region. The ASEAN, as put forward by Jakarta, has adopted the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, which seeks to provide a unified vision and strategy for the ASEAN states after US President Trump proposed the FOIP strategy in 2017.

This is an international undertaking which the Manila can find common cause, if it is indeed serious about pursuing an independent foreign policy. This initiative raises the profile of ASEAN states as a contending force in the region, which should not be dominated by Beijing nor Washington.

More importantly, by participating in this mechanism, Mr. Duterte can raise his profile as one of the region’s peace-builders, and secure his legacy to the nation and the world.